Budrigantrade-price natural gas fallen by 20% in week

Budrigantrade.com - Is natural gas going to be back at $3 soon? That seems to be the question that almost everyone in this market is thinking about, though it might not be said as much. The heating fuel posted another spectacular weekly loss of double digits after it appeared to be on a higher trajectory just the week before.

Friday's trade in the most-active April gas contract on the Henry Hub of the New York Mercantile Exchange ended at $2.43 per mmBtu, or metric million British thermal units, down 11.3 cents, or 4.3 percent.

April gas was down nearly 20% for the week.

Gas fates rose an intensified 30% in the earlier two weeks, hitting a 5-week high of $3.027 on Walk 3, on assumptions for pre-spring chill following quite a while of untimely warmth.

However, the weather models again pointed to higher temperatures this week, causing another market crash that proved the rally of the previous two weeks to be nothing more than a "dead cat bounce"—much to the chagrin of the bulls.

According to Sunil Kumar Dixit, chief technical strategist at SKCharting.com, the charts for April gas indicate that the path of least resistance is lower.

According to Dixit, "As gas breaks below the previous week's low, immediate resistance shifts to $2.66, above which is the next challenge." We could see a further drop to $2.30 and $2.18 below the $2.55 support.

Gelber & Associates, a Houston-based energy markets advisory, stated that this week's shift in weather model readings has fundamentally altered the gas outlook.

"Creation is as serious areas of strength for yet 100.5 billion cubic feet each day," Gelber said in a note that confirmed gas yield back to late January highs after ongoing downfalls under 100 bcf. " As a result, the NYMEX natural gas prompt month price has largely traded sideways.

A curiously warm winter has prompted impressively less warming interest in the US this year, leaving surprisingly gas away.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that natural gas storage stood at a total of 2.030 tcf, or trillion cubic feet, as of March 3, up 32% from the previous year's level of 1.537 tcf and 19% higher than the five-year average of 1.671 tcf.

Gas prices fell from a 14-year high of $10 per mmBtu in August to $7 in December as a result of the heat and weak storage draws. In late February, they reached a 2-1/2-year low of $1.967.

When will natty be back at $3? Or will we first attempt to break a new year-end low? That's what everyone wants to know, "remarked John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, a New York energy hedge fund.